STAT 270 Syllabus

STAT 270-01: Probability

Office Hours: MWF 10:30-11:20, 1:00-2:30; TTh 10:30-11:20 or by appointment
VH2236, x7236 (no voice mail), clthatch@truman.edu

• Course Description: From the 2019-2020 Course Catalog: “An introduction to probability and random variables including common discrete and continuous distributions, expectation, and joint distributions. Topics covered also include discussions of set theory, counting techniques, logic, methods of proof, and simple algorithms.” This course covers many of the same probability topics as STAT 289/290, but differs in its inclusion of logic, algorithms, and proofs and its exclusion of descriptive statistics and inference.
• Prerequisites: The prerequisites for this course are (a) completion of the Essential Skills in Statistics, and (b) MATH/STAT 260 or a grade of C or better in MATH 263 Analytic Geometry and Calculus II. This course is an option for the Applied Statistics and the Data Science concentrations of the Statistics major (the alternative is STAT 570 Mathematical Probability and Statistics).
• Outcome Statements
  • Recognize the overall importance of logic, precise language, and carefully constructed arguments.
  • Recognize the overall importance of probability as the basis of statistical inference.
  • Be able to use basic sentential (propositional) logic and connectives (not, and, or) and to evaluate their results in truth tables.
  • Be able to identify basic methods of proof, including induction.
  • Understand elements of set theory including unions, intersections, and complements and their role in basic probability rules.
  • Be able to use counting rules including combinations and permutations.
  • Be able to model problems using graphs, trees, and other mathematical structures.
  • Understand and apply rules of probability including assignment of equally likely probabilities, and conditional and independent events.
  • Understand expectation as a function and calculate expected values for both discrete and continuous random variables.
  • Be able to identify common discrete and continuous probability distributions—including binomial, Poisson, geometric, exponential, and normal distributions; and to work with their distribution functions to calculate probabilities.
  • Be able to use joint distribution functions to calculate distributions of functions of multiple random variables, joint expected values, and covariances.
  • Understand and apply limit theorems including the Central Limit Theorem.
• Credit Hour Justification: This is a three-credit hour course that meets for three 50-minute sessions of classroom instruction each week for the full semester. The “average” student should expect to spend at least six hours each week on out of class work (reading the textbook, doing homework problems, and studying). However, this is an average time per week for an average student and may have weekly variations.
• Recommended Texts: There is no specific textbook required for this course. There are, however, several texts that would be good references. Three of these are available online, with links on Blackboard and relevant sections listed on the course schedule.
• Web Materials: I will post the syllabus, homework assignments, handouts, and other important information on Blackboard. The syllabus and class schedule are also available on the Web at https://clthatch.sites.truman.edu/
• Calculators and Software: You will need a calculator capable of square roots and exponents. A “statistical” calculator is not required for this course, but you may find it useful. The mathematics department maintains a collection of graphing calculators that may be checked out for the semester on a first-come, first-served basis. While you may use a calculator application on your phone for classwork, cell phones will not be allowed during exams and you will need an actual calculator for exams.
  You may use MINITAB, R, Excel, or Open/LibreOffice (all available on university computers or through view.truman.edu) for any homework assignment. A student version of MINITAB can be rented ($30) for the semester for use on a home computer from www.onthehub.com/minitab/. Additionally, Open/LibreOffice can be freely downloaded from www.libreoffice.org for use on any computer. If you wish to use another software package, check with me first.
• Attendance: Regular attendance in this course is expected; however, attendance is not strictly required. That is, I will not penalize your grade simply for missing class, but you should be aware that frequent absences are associated with less understanding of the material. I strongly encourage you to come to every class period. Please stay home if you have had a fever, vomiting or diarrhea in the last 24 hours; you do not need to provide me with medical documentation.
  Note: Students are still responsible for completing all assigned work by the given deadlines unless other arrangements have been made with the instructor prior to the absence. If the absence is unexpected, the student should contact the instructor as soon as possible to arrange to make up the missed work.
  The university attendance policy is available in the Course Catalog: Attendance Policy
• Preparation for Class: Of course, simply attending class is not sufficient to master the material. Completing the reading and problem assignments on time is very crucial. If you do not understand a topic being studied, get help as soon as possible. Before each class you should review the previous class’s material and be prepared with any questions. You should bring a calculator to class for active participation.
• Academic Integrity: You will be expected to follow all university policies on academic integrity.¹ In particular, you should only use authorized (and acknowledged) sources on graded work. Serious violations will be reported to the Chair of the Department of Statistics and the Dean of the School of Science and Mathematics. You will, however, find that my list of authorized sources is fairly generous; refer to the sections on homework and tests below.
• Grading: The final course grade will be calculated as 0.4*(homework percentage) + 0.4*(test percentage) + 0.2*(final exam percentage). Letter grades will be assigned on a standard 10-point scale (e.g. 90% and above is an A).
  • Homework: The purpose of homework is to allow you frequent and prompt feedback on your progress. Homework assignments will be given approximately once per week. Point values for individual problems will be identified when the assignment is posted. You may work in small groups, say 2 or 3 people, on your homework, and you may turn in one assignment for the whole group; however, all contributors to a homework assignment should be identified. If you contributed to more than one homework paper, you should clearly identify which grade should be counted. You should always show your work on homework problems; failure to do so can result in a loss of half of the points for that problem—even if the answer is correct. Papers that are too messy to read, are not stapled or paperclipped together, or do not have the problems in the right order may lose 10% of the assignment’s possible points.
    A limited time will be allotted in the class period on the due date for discussion of the assignment, and assignments are due in my office or mailbox by 3pm on the due date. You may resubmit up to two (2) homework assignments to replace a missing or unsatisfactory score. Any assignment submitted after the due date will be treated as a resubmitted assignment and will count towards the 2 resubmissions limit; no other late homework will be accepted. You may appeal to me directly if you feel you have extenuating circumstances (death in the family, etc.). Resubmissions (including late homework) have implicitly waived the right to prompt feedback and will have the lowest priority in being graded.
  Your homework percentage — (points earned)/(points possible) — will count for 40% of the course grade.
  • In-class Tests: There will be three (3) in-class tests. In the nature of mathematics, these tests will be partly comprehensive. These tests are closed-book, closed-notes; however, you may bring in one standard (8.5 x 11) hand-written sheet of formulas, definitions, etc. Make-up tests will be given only with prior notice and only when merited. Your test percentage — (points earned)/(points possible) — will count for 40% of the course grade. The dates and tentative topics for these tests are:
    Test 1: Monday, Sept. 16 – Logic and ProofsTest 2: Monday, Oct. 21 – Mathematical Structures and ProbabilityTest 3: Monday, Nov. 18 – Random Variables and Distributions
  • Final Exam: The final exam will be Monday, Dec. 9, at 3:30-5:20. The final exam will be comprehensive, including material taught after Test #3. Your final exam percentage will count for 20% of the course grade.
    The complete final exam schedule for the university may be found at Final Exam Schedule
• How to Learn Probability and Statistics²
  • Make it personal: Learning is easiest when you are interested in the material. You have to connect what you are learning to what is important to you. If you are taking probability only as a required course, think about why it’s important to your area of study. Although logic and probability use a lot of mathematical notation, they have applications in many fields and form the basis of statistical inference.
  • Learn the language: Probability and statistics may seem like a foreign language with its own terminology and notation. Most of it is pretty logical, however, and you have probably used many of the terms yourself already. This can be a good thing or a bad thing. For example, many lay people use the term correlation and you probably have some notion what it means; however, the statistical definition is rather precise and does not apply to many situations where people use the term. So, make sure that you know the statistical definition of terminology that we use.
  • Practice, practice, practice: To learn probability and statistics (or any other material), you generally need to be exposed to the content three or four times. Hence, just hearing the material once in class may not be sufficient. You should read the book, do the homework, review your class notes between classes, and review your notes and rework problems before an exam. Another thought, although it is often said that “practice makes perfect,” keep in mind that practicing something in the wrong way will only make it worse. Check your answers, and review what you have missed on homeworks or exams.
  • Keep up: Like many subjects, this course will build on concepts throughout the semesters. If you start to fall behind, get help early. If you really understand why you are doing what you are doing, you will find that most of the material follows logically from a few major concepts and techniques. On the other hand, even if you don’t know why you are doing it, keep doing it; sometimes understanding follows. If you don’t know how to do a problem, think about possible partial answers. For example, if I ask you to perform a two-sample t-test to compare the means of two groups, even if you have no idea what a t-test is, you can probably calculate the means of each group and make a guess of whether they are the same or different.
  • Do well: You will enjoy the subject more if you actually succeed in it. This may mean putting in extra effort (see practice, practice, practice). If you find the material difficult, how much prouder will you be when you have mastered it?
    If you have ever watched a baby learn to walk, you know that (s)he will fall down several times and get up and try again and again and again. If you put that much effort into learning probability and statistics, you will learn it.
  • Don’t stop now: One semester of probability and statistics does not make you an expert. There is plenty of material that we do not cover. While I encourage you to take upper-level statistics courses, you don’t have to take a class to learn more about statistics. The library has many texts that you may find interesting; try browsing the QA section of the general collection.
• Additional Sources of Assistance: I encourage you to come to Office Hours if you have any questions. Additionally, the Center for Academic Excellence (112 Kirk Bldg) and MAC (Adair Bldg) offer tutoring, but subject to the availability of tutors with relevant experience. Individual tutoring is also occasionally available at various costs; check with the statistics department office for a list of individual tutors.
• Disability Services: The university is committed to making every possible effort to comply with the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA). If you have a disability for which you are or may be requesting an accommodation, you are encouraged to contact both me and the Disability Services office (x4478) as soon as possible. For more info, see http://disabilityservices.truman.edu/
• Title IX: As an instructor, one of my responsibilities is to help create a safe learning environment on our campus. Additionally, faculty members are mandatory reporters; we are required to share information regarding sexual misconduct or information about a crime that may have occurred on Truman’s campus with the University. Students may speak to someone confidentially by contacting University Counseling Services at 660-785-4014 (660-665-5621 for after-hours crisis counseling). For more information regarding Truman’s policies and procedures relating to any form of gender discrimination, please see http://eoaa.truman.edu/university-non-discrimination-policy/ and http://eoaa.truman.edu/complaint-reporting-resolution-procedure/.
• Emergency Procedures: In each classroom on campus, there is a poster of emergency procedures explaining best practices in the event of an active shooter/hostile intruder, fire, severe weather, bomb threat, power outage, and medical emergency. This poster is also available as a PDF at this link: http://police.truman.edu/files/2015/12/Emergency-Procedures.pdf . Students should be aware of the classroom environment and note the exits for the room and building. For more detailed information about emergency procedures, please consult the Emergency Guide for Academic Buildings: http://police.truman.edu/emergency-procedures/academic-buildings/
  This six-minute video provides some basic information on how to react in the event there is an active shooter in your location: http://police.truman.edu/emergency-procedures/active-shooter/active-shooter-preparedness-video/
  Truman students, faculty, and staff can sign up for the TruAlert emergency text messaging service via TruView. TruAlert sends a text message to all enrolled cell phones in the event of an emergency at the University. To register, sign in to TruView and click on the “Truman” tab. Click on the registration link in the lower right of the page under the “Update and View My Personal Information” channel on the “Emergency Text Messaging” or “Update Emergency Text Messaging Information” link. During a campus emergency, information will also be posted on the TruAlert website http://trualert.truman.edu/.

¹See for example: Truman State University General/Graduate Catalog. Truman State University: Kirksville, MO, 2019. http://catalog.truman.edu/content.php?catoid=10&navoid=451#Academic_Dishonesty
²Portions adapted from Hutchinson, Paul. 1997. http://www.angelfire.com/biz/rumsby/ASTUDY.html