STAT 370 Probability

The best way to reach me is by email or during office hours. Meeting ID for Zoom office hours will be available at the course page in Blackboard.
Please review important support instructions for online learners available at online.truman.edu. This site will provide you with the most up-to-date information on important University resources and where to access them.

Welcome!

I’m glad you’ve enrolled in this course, and I hope you enjoy it. Probability has its roots in gambling and describes the rules that govern chance events. We will develop a formal theory of probability from simple events through joint random variables. Along the way, we’ll touch on some additional topics from discrete mathematics.

Required Textbook and Materials

• Required Text: An Introduction to Mathematical Statistics and Its Applications, 6^th ed, Larsen and Marx (ISBN-13: 978-0134114217)
• Truman Bookstore Website: https://www.bkstr.com/trumanstatestore/home
• Truman Library Website: http://library.truman.edu

Minimum Technology and Skills Requirements

• Minimum Technology Requirements: You will need a reliable broadband internet connection (cable modem, DSL, or satellite). Students should have a relatively new operating system (Windows 7 or newer, Mac OSX, etc.) and a compatible web browser such as Chrome, Firefox, or Safari. This course will use Blackboard Learn; for a list of compatible systems and browsers visit Blackboard. (While you may be able to use the Blackboard app on a smartphone, some materials will only perform well on a computer with a wired connection.)
  This course does use audio and video. Videos are close-captioned. To benefit from the audio, you will need a computer with speakers. Note: If you are connected using the VPN, you may need to disconnect in order to view videos. It is also recommended to use a wired connection. Your computer will need sufficient processing speed to stream videos.
  To participate in Zoom office hours, you will need a computer, tablet, or smartphone with speakers and a microphone. A webcam will also be needed if you want to send video.
  You should also review the guidelines on online.truman.edu.
• Minimum Technical Skills: You should be comfortable with sending and receiving email and navigating Blackboard. You may use a word processor for completing homework, but it is not required. Homework will be submitted through Blackboard Assignments. You should be comfortable with uploading documents to Blackboard. Preferred document formats are docx and pdf. Note: if you write out your assignments by hand, you will need a way to scan and upload those pages to Blackboard. (Some students like to use the Camscanner app for this purpose.) Tests and the final exam will be done through Blackboard Tests. Whether you’ve previously taken a test in Blackboard or not, its a good idea to review these tips for taking a test in Blackboard.
  If you need to brush up on some skills you will find some helpful information and tutorials at LearningOnline@Truman.
• Web Materials: I will post the syllabus, lecture videos, homework assignments, handouts, and other important information on Blackboard. A copy of this syllabus will also be available on the Web at https://clthatch.sites.truman.edu/.
• Calculators and Software: You will need a calculator capable of square roots, logs, and exponents. A “statistical” calculator is not required for this course, but you may find it useful. The mathematics department maintains a collection of graphing calculators that may be checked out for the semester on a first-come, first-served basis.
  This course will not require any specialized software; however, you may use R, Minitab, SPSS, Excel, or Open/LibreOffice (all available on university computers or through view.truman.edu ) for any assignment. R may be freely downloaded from www.r-project.org , and R Studio may be freely downloaded from www.rstudio.com for use on a personal computer. A student version of Minitab can be rented ($30) for the semester for use on a home computer from www.onthehub.com/minitab/. Additionally, Open/LibreOffice can be freely downloaded from www.libreoffice.org for use on a personal computer.

Course Information

• Course Description: From the course catalog: “An introduction to probability and random variables including common discrete and continuous distributions, expectation, and joint distributions. Topics covered include set theory, counting techniques, probability rules, common probability distributions, moment generating functions, joint probability, and maximum likelihood estimation.”
• Pre-requisites: (STAT 190 Basic Statistics or STAT 290 Statistics) and (MATH/STAT 260 Applied Mathematics for Data Analysis or a C or better in MATH 263 Analytic Geometry and Calculus II). We will be using derivatives and integrals of polynomials and exponential functions, including limits at infinity. If it’s been awhile since you’ve used these skills, you might want to review them.
• Course Objectives: The purpose of this course is to provide the student a foundation in probability and random variables. Note: this course covers both theory and applications. Students will be shown derivations and/or proofs and will have to derive/prove some basic results as well as calculate and interpret values for applications. Upon successful completion of this course, the student will
  • Recognize the overall importance of logic, precise language, and carefully constructed arguments
  • Understand elements of set theory including unions, intersections, and complements and their role in basic probability rules
  • Apply counting rules including combinations and permutations
  • Understand and apply rules of probability including assignment of equally likely probabilities, and conditional and independent events
  • Understand expectation as a function and calculate expected values for both discrete and continuous random variables
  • Identify and use moment generating functions for discrete and continuous distributions
  • Identify common discrete and continuous distributions — including binomial, Poisson, geometric, exponential, and normal distributions; and work with their distribution functions to calculate probabilities
  • Use joint distribution functions to calculate distributions of functions of multiple random variables, joint expected values, and covariances
  • Understand and apply limit theorems including the Central Limit Theorem
  • Apply maximum likelihood estimation to estimate a single parameter for discrete and continuous distributions
• Credit Hour Justification: This is a three-credit hour course that meets online for the full semester. Each week there will be approximately 100-150 minutes of video to view. The “average” student should expect to spend at least nine hours each week on work for class (reading the textbook, watching the videos, doing homework problems, and general studying). However, this is an average time per week for an average student and may have weekly variations.
• Availability of Course Content: Course videos will be available at least one week before they should be viewed. Assignments will be posted at least one week before they are due. Tests and the final exam will be available during certain windows of time, typically two to three days. These windows will be clearly indicated on the Tests page in Blackboard where the test is posted.
• Proctoring: This course does not require proctored exams.
• Continuity Plans: If at any time I am forced to be away from the course for more than two business days, such as in the case of illness or personal emergency, I will notify the class as soon as possible and provide an additional point of contact for further information. If the University suspends in-person classes, we will not generally be affected except that I may have to reschedule office hours.

Student and Instructor Expectations

• My Expectation of Students: Be aware that online courses take more self-discipline than a face-to-face class. It will be your responsibility to keep up with the material, and you should allow extra time for unforeseen technology issues. I expect students to
  • read the textbook and watch the videos;
  • complete their assigned work in a timely manner, according to the schedule on Blackboard;
  • complete examinations with honesty and integrity;
  • be polite and respectful when communicating with the instructor or with their peers;
  • ask questions whenever they have difficulty understanding course material or requirements; and
  • express their concerns about the course with me.
• What Students Should Expect of Me as Their Instructor: Students should expect me to make regular announcements about the course —particularly when changes to the posted schedule or office hours are made; provide thorough responses to questions and concerns about the course; and provide timely feedback on assignments and tests.
• Time Expectation for Feedback: You can expect a response to email within one business day. For most assignments and exams, you can expect feedback within one week of the due date. When longer grading time is required, a time frame for feedback will be shared with the assignment instructions or in a class-wide announcement. In particular, assignments that are submitted late might not be graded within one week of being submitted.
• Learner Interaction: You are strongly encouraged to take advantage of posted office hours. If you cannot meet during the posted hours, additional appointments can be made. You are also advised to communicate with other students in the course, and you may work together on homework assignments (but not exams).
• University Attendance Policy: The university attendance policy is available in the Course Catalog: Attendance Policy
• Attendance for this Course: As this is an online course, attendance looks a little different. While attendance/participation is not directly factored into your course grade, it is still important to engage with the course regularly. You should log in to the course on Blackboard at least every other business day. Even better is to check daily for announcements. Planning ahead, pacing yourself, and allowing extra time will reduce stress when deadlines approach. It’s also good practice to set aside regular times each week that you will dedicate to this course, preferably a quiet time of day without distractions.
  Videos will be posted for each week with a suggested MWF viewing schedule, but they may be viewed on days and at times of your choosing. However, this is not a self-paced course: there are fixed deadlines for homework assignments and fixed dates for the tests and final. I strongly suggest you keep up with the videos for each week and start your homework assignments early; do not attempt to watch a week’s worth of videos the same day that the homework is due.
  Note: Students who are ill or traveling are still responsible for completing all assigned work by the given deadlines unless other arrangements have been made with the instructor in advance. The student should contact (email preferred) the instructor as soon as possible to arrange to reschedule or make up the missed work.
• Face Covering: Although this course will not meet in person, you should be aware of campus policies for wearing a face covering. Consistent with guidance for higher education institutions from the Centers for Disease Control and to help us reduce the possible spread of COVID-19, when you are in campus buildings, you will be required to wear a face covering that completely covers your nose and mouth. Thank you for your help in containing this virus and helping to protect your peers.
• Netiquette: Netiquette describes the etiquette and social rules for online communication. Being conscious of netiquette is particularly important in online communication where you don’t have as many non-verbal cues (such as facial expression) to interpret tone and meaning. Here are some guidelines:
  • Be polite and respectful to others.
  • Try to avoid misunderstandings. Avoid using abbreviations, slang or jargon that is not part of the course. Avoid sarcasm. Avoid using all caps or lots of exclamation points as these are interpreted as shouting.
  • Practice professionalism. Use complete sentences, punctuation and capitalization.
  • Consider your legal and ethical obligations. Avoid plagiarism or copyright infringement. Don’t post personal information or advertising.
• Academic Integrity: You will be expected to follow all university policies on academic integrity (see the course catalog) . In particular, you should only use authorized (and acknowledged) sources on graded work. Serious violations will be reported to the Chair of the Department of Statistics and the Dean of the School of Science and Mathematics. You will, however, find that my list of authorized sources is fairly generous; refer to the sections on Homework and Tests below.
• Course Evaluation: At the end of this term, you will be asked to complete a survey regarding my instruction in this course. The survey is anonymous and I will not see the results until after grades have been completed. It is very important that I receive this feedback as it helps me to continuously improve this course. It also helps the University make decisions about our overall curriculum. Please be sure to participate in this survey opportunity.

Grading Information

The final course grade will be calculated as 0.40*(homework percentage) + 0.40*(test percentage) + 0.20*(final exam percentage). Letter grades will be assigned on a standard 10-point scale (e.g. 90% and above is an A).

• Homework: The purpose of homework is to allow you frequent and prompt feedback on your progress. Homework assignments will be given approximately once per week. Homework assignments will be posted in Blackboard at least one week before they are due, and point values for individual problems will be identified when the assignment is posted. You may work together on your homework, but you should turn in your own write-up. You should always show your work on homework problems; failure to do so can result in a loss of (up to) half the points for that problem— even if the answer is correct.
  Homework assignments will be turned in through Blackboard Assignments. You may use a word processor or write out solutions neatly by hand. To upload a document to Blackboard, docx and pdf format are preferred. If you write out your assignments by hand, this may require scanning or taking a picture of your assignment. (Some students like using the Camscanner app for this purpose.) You should make sure that your answers are readable before uploading. If I can’t read your answers, I will ask you to resubmit the assignment before I will grade it.
  You may redo up to two (2) homework assignment to replace a missing or unsatisfactory score. Any assignment submitted after the due date will be treated as a redone assignment and will count for the 2 redo limit; no other late homework will be accepted (except as arranged with the instructor per the attendance policy). You may appeal to me directly if you feel you have extenuating circumstances (death in the family, etc.). Redone assignments have implicitly waived the right to prompt feedback and will have the lowest priority in being graded.
  Your homework percentage— (points earned)/(points possible)— will count for 40% of the course grade.
• Tests: There will be three (3) tests through Blackboard Tests during the semester. In the nature of mathematics, these tests will be partly comprehensive. These tests will be open-book, open-notes; however, there will be a time limit (not less than two hours). You may not consult with other students or individuals except for the instructor.
  Make-up tests will be given only with prior notice and only when merited. Tests will be posted on Blackboard at least 48 hours before the due date. The due dates and topics for these tests are:
  Test 1: Friday, Sept. 18, 2020 – Ch. 1-2 Discrete Mathematics and Basic Probability
  Test 2: Monday, Oct. 19, 2020 – Ch. 3 Random Variables
  Test 3: Friday, Nov. 20, 2020 – Ch. 4, 5.1-5.2, 5.4 Estimation
  Your test percentage— (points earned)/(points possible)— will count for 40% of the course grade.
• Final Exam: The final exam will also be open-books and open-notes through Blackboard with a time limit (not less than three hours). Again, you may not consult with any other students or individuals except for the instructor. The final exam will be due Friday, Dec. 11, 2020, and will be posted on Blackboard at least 72 hours before the due date. The final exam will be comprehensive, including material taught after Test #3.
  The complete final exam schedule for the university may be found at Final Exam Schedule.
  Your final exam percentage will count for 20% of the course grade.

Important Dates

Important University Policies

• FERPA: Education records are protected by the Family Education Right to Privacy Act (FERPA). As a result, course grades, assignments, advising records, etc. cannot be released to third parties without your permission. There are, however, several exceptions about which you should be aware. For example, education records can be disclosed to employees or offices at Truman who have an “educational need to know”. These employees and offices may include your academic advisor, the Institutional Compliance Officer, the Registrar’s Office, or Student Affairs depending on the type of information. For more information about FERPA, see https://www.truman.edu/registrar/ferpa/ .
• Non-Discrimination and Title IX: (to be updated soon) Truman State University, in compliance with applicable laws and recognizing its deeper commitment to equity, diversity, and inclusion, which enhances accessibility and promotes excellence in all aspects of the Truman Experience, does not discriminate on the basis of age, color, disability, national origin, race, religion, retaliation, sex (including pregnancy), sexual orientation, or protected veteran status in its programs and activities, including employment, admissions, and educational programs, and activities. Faculty and staff are considered “mandated reporters” and therefore are required to report potential violations of the University’s Anti-Discrimination Policies to the Institutional Compliance Officer.
  Title IX prohibits sex harassment, sexual assault, intimate partner violence, stalking and retaliation. Truman State University encourages individuals who believe they may have been impacted by sexual or gender-based discrimination to consult with the Title IX Coordinator, who is available to speak in depth about the resources and options Faculty and staff are considered “mandated reporters” and therefore are required to report potential incidents of sexual misconduct that they become aware of to the Title IX Coordinator.
  For more information on discrimination or Title IX, or to file a complaint contact:

  Dr. Lauri Millot,	Institutional Compliance Officer, Title IX, and Section 504 Coordinator
  	Office of Institutional Compliance
  	Violette Hall, Room 1308
  	100 E. Normal Ave.
  	Kirksville, MO 63501
  	Phone: (660) 785-4354
  	titleix@truman.edu

  The institution’s complaint procedure can be viewed at http://titleix.truman.edu/files/2015/08/University-Complaint-Reporting-Resolution-Procedure.pdf and the complaint form is accessible at http://titleix.truman.edu/make-a-report/

• Emergency Procedures: In each classroom on campus, there is a poster of emergency procedures explaining best practices in the event of an active shooter/hostile intruder, fire, severe weather, bomb threat, power outage, and medical emergency. This poster is also available as a PDF at this link: http://police.truman.edu/files/2015/12/Emergency-Procedures.pdf . Students should be aware of the classroom environment and note the exits for the room and building. For more detailed information about emergency procedures, please consult the Emergency Guide for Academic Buildings: http://police.truman.edu/emergency-procedures/academic-buildings/
  This six-minute video provides some basic information on how to react in the event there is an active shooter in your location: http://police.truman.edu/emergency-procedures/active-shooter/active-shooter-preparedness-video/
  Truman students, faculty, and staff can sign up for the TruAlert emergency text messaging service via TruView. TruAlert sends a text message to all enrolled cell phones in the event of an emergency at the University. To register, sign in to TruView and click on the “Truman” tab. Click on the registration link in the lower right of the page under the “Update and View My Personal Information” channel on the “Emergency Text Messaging” or “Update Emergency Text Messaging Information” link. During a campus emergency, information will also be posted on the TruAlert website http://trualert.truman.edu/.

Important Contacts

Various offices that provide services to online students are identified at the One Stop Services page on online.truman.edu. Should you need to consult with administrators that oversee this department and course, here is the contact information for those individuals.

I hope your experience with this class is positive. When and if you feel a complaint about this or another course is required, however, the procedure for lodging a complaint can be found on the University’s Report a Complaint page. Students taking an online course from outside of the state of Missouri should follow the complaint procedure offered here. Students are always asked to address their complaint to the professor of the course first when possible, then take their concerns to the Department Chair if the matter cannot be resolved with the faculty member.

Learner Support

The University provides a range of both academic and student support services to ensure your success. These offices can advise you on learning strategies, point you toward valuable support services, and help you troubleshoot technical problems as they arise.

• Disability Services: To obtain disability-related academic accommodations, students with documented disabilities must contact the course instructor and the Office of Student Access and Disability Services (OSA) as soon as possible. Truman complies with ADA requirements. For additional information, refer to the Office of Student Access and Disability Services website at http://disabilityservices.truman.edu/
  You may also contact OSA by phone at (660) 785-4478 or email studentaccess@truman.edu
  This online course is designed for accessibility. If you encounter difficulty accessing materials required for this course, please do not hesitate to inform me, and I will work with Truman’s support staff to promptly address the issue.
• Center for Academic Excellence: The Center for Academic Excellence provides advising services for students in their first year for most departments, as well as tutoring services. The Center is now located in Pickler Memorial Library room 109, and it may be reached at (660) 785-7403.
• Counseling Services: Counseling Services are available on campus at McKinney Center. Appointments may be scheduled by calling (660) 785-4014. An after-hours crisis line is also available at (660) 665-5621.
• IT Help Desk: The IT Service Center has combined the IT Call Center, Help Desk and Telephone Services into a one-stop location to serve you. You will find the following services and more when you stop by Pickler Memorial Library 203 or call (660) 785-4544. You may submit a customer support ticket at this web address.
• Writing Center: The Writing Center can help with your writing projects. The writing consultants will read you work and give you feedback. They can also help you brainstorm if you’re having a hard time getting started, but they are not a proofreading service. The Writing Center uses the same online scheduler as the tutoring from the Center for Academic Excellence. The Writing Center is located in Pickler Memorial Library 107B.
• Career Center: The Career Center can help you find your passion, prepare resumes and cover letters, connect with employers, and practice mock interviews.
• Statistics Major: This course (or STAT 570 Mathematical Probability and Statistics) is a required course in the statistics major. Information on the statistics major can be accessed via the department website or the University Catalog. This course may also be used as an elective in the statistics minor.

Advice on Learning Statistics

Portions adapted from Paul Hutchinson, 1997 (http://www.angelfire.com/biz/rumsby/ASTUDY.html ).

• Make it personal: Learning is easiest when you are interested in the material. You have to connect what you are learning to what is important to you. If you are taking statistics only as a required course, think about why your field would want you to know statistics. Although statistics uses a lot of mathematical notation, as a field it primarily arose from social scientists and natural scientists who needed to use it. If you are in those fields, you’ll probably need to use it too.
• Learn the language: Statistics may seem like a foreign language with its own terminology and notation. Most of it is pretty logical, however, and you have probably used many of the terms yourself already. This can be a good thing or a bad thing. For example, many lay people use the term correlation and you probably have some notion what it means; however, the statistical definition is rather precise and does not apply to many situations where people use the term. So, make sure that you know the statistical definition of terminology that we use.
• Practice, practice, practice: To learn statistics (or any other material), you generally need to be exposed to the content three or four times. Hence, just hearing the material once in class may not be sufficient. You should read the book, do the homework, review your class notes between classes, and review your notes and rework problems before an exam. Another thought, although it is often said that “practice makes perfect,” keep in mind that practicing something in the wrong way will only make it worse. Check your answers, and review what you have missed on homeworks or exams.
• Keep up: Like many subjects, statistics will build on concepts throughout the semesters. If you start to fall behind, get help early. If you really understand why you are doing what you are doing, you will find that most of the material follows logically from a few major concepts and techniques. On the other hand, even if you don’t know why you are doing it, keep doing it; sometimes understanding follows. If you don’t know how to do a problem, think about possible partial answers. For example, if I ask you to perform a two-sample t-test to compare the means of two groups, even if you have no idea what a t-test is, you can probably calculate the means of each group and make a guess of whether they are the same or different.
• Do well: You will enjoy the subject more if you actually succeed in it. This may mean putting in extra effort (see practice, practice, practice). If you find the material difficult, how much prouder will you be when you have mastered it?
  If you have ever watched a baby learn to walk, you know that (s)he will fall down several times and get up and try again and again and again. If you put that much effort into learning statistics, you will learn it. Remember, we have all learned to walk; so you can learn statistics.
• Don’t stop now: One semester of statistics does not make you a statistician. There is plenty of material that we do not cover. While I encourage you to take other upper-level statistics courses, you don’t have to take a class to learn more about statistics. The library has many texts that you may find interesting; try browsing the QA section of the general collection.